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Justice Dept to use Forbes 30 Under 30 as early-warning fraud index
Honorees were 23.7 times more likely to face prosecution than a control group of Rotary Club award recipients.
WASHINGTON, Feb 3 – The U.S. Department of Justice will begin using the Forbes 30 Under 30 rankings as a formal “early‑warning fraud index” following the indictment of an unnamed fintech CEO who appeared on the list, according to people familiar with the matter. The move, described in an internal policy note circulated late Thursday, treats inclusion on the annual list as a statistically significant risk factor for future white-collar enforcement actions, a Justice Department spokesperson confirmed.
“Under a pilot study, individuals featured on at least one Forbes 30 Under 30 list were 23.7 times more likely to be named in a criminal information within five years than a control group of Rotary Club award recipients.”
Under a pilot study conducted by the department’s Criminal Division, individuals featured on at least one Forbes 30 Under 30 list between 2010 and 2020 were 23.7 times more likely to be named in a criminal information, civil fraud complaint or deferred prosecution agreement within five years than a control group of mid-level regional bank managers and Rotary Club award recipients. “We view the Forbes cohort as a high-yield pool of future investigative leads,” the memo said, adding that 71.4% of sampled honorees exhibited “elevated indicators of securities, wire, or marketing fraud.” Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that, adjusted for sector and age, the implied “fraud beta” of honorees was 1.8 versus the broader founder population.
Implementation of the new framework will involve automated data feeds from Forbes to a dedicated Justice Department analytics unit, which will maintain a rolling “F30F Composite Risk Score” on each honoree, according to the memo. The system will assign a projected “preliminary indictment window” in 6‑month increments based on variables including valuation growth above 400%, social media follower acceleration and the presence of celebrity investors, people briefed on the tool said. Banks and venture funds will be encouraged, though not yet required, to incorporate the index into their know-your-customer and due diligence processes, and the Securities and Exchange Commission is exploring a parallel “pre-emptive subpoena sandbox” tied to the same data.
Officials are already studying possible expansion of the framework to other prestige rankings, including “unicorn” lists and young innovator awards, to build what one draft document calls a “holistic reputational exuberance risk dashboard.” The Bureau of Prisons has been asked to provide capacity projections under several scenarios, including a “high optimism” case in which 38% of all 30 Under 30 alumni require white-collar housing by 2035. Market participants say an exchange-traded fund that systematically shorts companies led by list honorees could follow if regulators finalize recognition of the index as a material risk indicator in public filings.
